Clinical risk model for identifying undiagnosed diabetes and prediabetes

Summarised from:

Identifying Undiagnosed Diabetes and Prediabetes in the Dental Setting in an Asian Population—A Clinical Risk Model
(Journal of Clinical Periodontology; doi: 10.1111/jcpe.14090)

Authors:

Hoe Kit Chee, Frank Abbas, Arie Jan van Winkelhoff, Geerten Has Tjakkes, Hla Myint Htoon, Huihua Li, Yvonne de Waal, Arjan Vissink, Chaminda Jayampath Seneviratne

Summarised by:

Dr Varkha Rattu

Research Topic:

Background + Aims

  • Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a growing global health issue, with millions remaining undiagnosed.
  • In Singapore, diabetes prevalence is among the highest in Southeast Asia, with half of those affected unaware of their condition at diagnosis.
  • Early identification of undiagnosed diabetes or prediabetes can reduce complications and improve health outcomes.
  • Periodontitis, a chronic inflammatory disease linked to diabetes, may serve as an early indicator of dysglycaemia.
  • Studies suggest that routine dental visits provide an opportunity for screening diabetes risk, yet most research has focused on Western populations. Asians are at a higher risk of developing T2DM, with two-thirds of global cases occurring in Asia. Singapore, with its diverse Asian population, serves as a representative microcosm for the region.
  • This study aimed to:
    • Assess the prevalence of undiagnosed diabetes and prediabetes in a Singaporean dental cohort.
    • Develop a clinical risk model for dentists to identify high-risk patients and improve diabetes screening within dental settings, especially in Asian populations with unique diabetes risk profiles.

Materials + Methods

  • This cross-sectional study was conducted at the National Dental Centre Singapore (NDCS) from May 2016 to October 2019.
  • Participants were excluded if they had existing diabetes diagnoses or conditions affecting glucose metabolism.
  • The primary outcome was the confirmation of diabetes or prediabetes based on point-of-care glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) levels, followed by physician referrals for further testing.
  • Patients completed the American Diabetes Association Risk Test, providing information on demographics, medical history, and lifestyle factors.
  • Periodontal parameters, including probing pocket depth (PPD), bleeding on probing (BOP), and the periodontal inflamed surface area (PISA), were measured by calibrated dentists to ensure consistency.
  • Finger-prick HbA1c testing categorised participants as normoglycaemic, prediabetic, or diabetic.
  • Patients with HbA1c >6.0% were referred for further medical assessment.
  • Logistic regression models were used to identify factors predicting undiagnosed diabetes, with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves assessing model performance.

Results

  • A total of 1,074 patients from NDCS without prior diabetes diagnoses were enrolled in the study:
    • 65 were diagnosed with diabetes – confirmed diabetes mellitus (CDM)
    • 83 with prediabetes – confirmed prediabetes (CPD)
    • 11 showed hyperglycaemic HbA1c levels but did not comply with follow-ups
    • The remaining 915 participants had normal glycaemic status (N).
  • Patients in the CDM and CPD groups were older, had higher BMIs, and scored higher on the ADA diabetes risk test compared to the N group.
  • Non-Chinese ethnicities, smoking, hypertension, and family history of diabetes were more prevalent in the CDM group.
  • Periodontal health assessments revealed that severe periodontitis was significantly higher in the CDM group, with increased PPD, BOP and PISA compared to the N group.
  • Patients with Stage III/IV periodontitis had a greater likelihood of undiagnosed diabetes.
  • Logistic regression identified key predictors of undiagnosed diabetes, including:
    • BMI ≥23.0 kg/m²
    • ADA risk score ≥5
    • Family history of diabetes
    • Smoking
    • Severe periodontitis
    • Models combining these variables showed good predictive performance, with the best models incorporating severe periodontitis or Stage III/IV periodontitis alongside BMI, family history, and smoking, achieving area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.717–0.721.
  • Point-of-care (POC) HbA1c testing alone demonstrated superior predictive ability for undiagnosed diabetes (AUC 0.954).

Limitations

  • The study relied on point-of-care (POC) HbA1c testing instead of high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC), which is the gold standard for diagnosing diabetes. Although the POC device used has been FDA-approved for diagnostic purposes, its precision may still be slightly lower than laboratory-based methods.
  • The study was conducted in a single tertiary dental institution, limiting its generalisability to other settings. While participants were recruited from various dental disciplines and regions in Singapore, the sample may not fully represent the broader population.
  • The number of participants with confirmed diabetes or prediabetes was relatively low, which may reduce the statistical power of the risk models developed and their robustness when applied to other populations.
  • The models were not validated in an independent cohort, which is necessary to confirm their effectiveness.

Conclusion

  • This study highlights the potential of dental settings for opportunistic screening of undiagnosed diabetes and prediabetes using clinical risk models and point-of-care HbA1c testing.
  • Combining periodontal status with traditional risk factors like BMI, family history, and smoking enhances detection accuracy, promoting early medical referrals and improving patient outcomes in high-risk populations
  • While periodontal measures were included in the risk models, their contribution to diabetes prediction was minor compared to traditional risk factors such as BMI, family history of diabetes, and smoking. The study found that periodontal disease alone has low sensitivity and specificity for identifying undiagnosed diabetes, suggesting that it should be used alongside other risk factors rather than as a sole predictor.
Read the full article Back to Research

Research  |  12.11.24

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tag iconPeriodontitis,Diabetes

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